Re: Linux betas NT in TPC testing, running Oracle8

In article <7gnttm$rhg$2_at_ocean.cup.hp.com>,   foo_at_bar.baz (Rick Jones) wrote:
> Craig Kelley (ink_at_inconnu.isu.edu) wrote:
> : Back in the days of measuring CPU times to the cycle, benchmarks
> : were shown to save money by increasing the longetivity of your
> : hardware. Today, you just plunk down a few thousand dollars to buy
> : more machine.
>
> I suspect the ability/desire/willingness to simply "plunk down a few
> thousand dollars to buy more machine" depends heavily on the space in
> which one operates.

This is an important point. The individual who is reluctant to spend $2000 to replace a working machine isn't that much different from the corporate manager who has an IT budget of $10,000/user/year including the entire IT staff, servers, and software licenses. When a Microsoft OS or Office upgrade will result in total replacement of the entire machine, the user's information and configuration need to be backed up, the workstation needs to be replaced, configured, and "restored". Often, the "reengineering" is so limited that it can take several days or even weeks to get a functional system. When you are talking $10,000 in upgrade costs, and you have 1000 users, you are talking $10 million out of a $10 million budget. When a company of 1000 users generates $1 billion in revenue, but other costs bring earnings into the $100 million range, a $10 million "hit" can hit the company in a big way. The CEO often turns to the CIO who must then do "cost reduction".

Microsoft has traditionally introduced new products that required the immediate migration to new hardware by the entire industry over a very short period. Usually, the legacy systems are obsolete within 3-5 years. Software and content incompatibility renders these legacy systems obsolete within weeks of the first round of installs as "enhanced" documents begin proliferating throughout the enterprise.

Linux and UNIX have supported backward compatibility and evolutionary upgrades. This means that a corporation that uses Linux can gradually upgrade systems over 2-3 years rather than try and absorb a "massive upgrade" every 2-4 years. Recent Microsoft releases such as Windows NT 4.0, Office 97, and Windows 98 have all been poorly received. Microsoft claimed huge sales figures immediately following the release, but inventory often sat on retailer shelves for months as users refused to upgrade and OEMs installed the new products into new products. In many cases, retailers eventually resorted to using Windows 98 as a "throw-in" to close deals on existing inventory of Windows 95 powered machines. To appease Microsoft, they lowered the price of the PC and then charged for the upgrade. In effect, they were literally giving away the upgrade. Microsoft simply claimed that since they shipped 2 million copies to the retailers, that 1 million copies must have been sold. Windows NT 4.0 is still struggling to sell 2 million copies/year.  The Linux user base is actually larger than the NT 4.0 user base. This is based on IDC sales figures for both systems, Microsoft's strict copy-protection schemes that limit copies to 1/sale while Linux encourages copying which averages 6 copies per unit sold through any channel. IDC only reports on sales of shrink-wrapped products sold through software retail channels. Since Linux is also sold as "Books", and is also sold through the internet as "Complimentary software" with other products such as APPLIX, WordPerfect, and other software, it "doesn't count" as software sales. If IDC reports 4 million copies sold, and there are another 4 million "complimentary copies" sold with other products, and each copy is installed on an average of 5 computers, this puts the Linux user base at 40 million users. With a growth rate averaging 10%/month, this means that the Linux community is growing at a rate of over 4 million users/month.

> rick jones
> --
> these opinions are mine, all mine; HP might not want them anyway... :)
> feel free to email, or post, but please do not do both...
> my email address is raj in the cup.hp.com domain...
>

--
Rex Ballard - Open Source Advocate, Internet Architect, IT Architect
http://www.open4success.com

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