Re: Database market share 2004

ken_north_at_compuserve.com wrote:

> The number of downloads is probably a better measure of the influence
> of open source products. Trying to use capitalization or revenue as a
> yardstick is problematical.

Agreed, but arguably "number of downloads" is moreso. I remember back during the dot-com boom, that was how ISVs measured their success. Didn't get them very far...

> Much of the highly-visible open source software (MySQL, JBoss, Apache,
> Eclipse, Linux) has had an infusion of venture capital or a commitment
> of resources by large computer companies. For example, IBM committed to
> spending more than $1 billion on Linux and donated servers and software
> to the Apache and Eclipse foundations.

Absolutely (I mentioned the 17m EUR for mySQL). And it could very well be that OSS is sustained through capital inflows without lots of direct revenue to provide a return.

> The economic effect of open source isn't limited to direct revenue from
> licenses and support contracts. Companies that manufacture computers
> know that open source contributes to the revenue stream from selling
> hardware (e.g., 40 million web servers running Apache).

Great, but since the only major integrated hardware & software companies are Sun & IBM, that's a rather limited set of companies. Whither the ISV? What happens to Oracle, Symantec/Veritas, BEA, etc? Do they need to get into the hardware business? I think not. And besides, I don't think IBM really wants to lose DB2 share to mySQL.

So the question is whether OSS eventually sucks the direct revenue out of the market. If there are enough vested interests to fund that sort of effort, sure, it could happen. Apache is a great example of that effect. I think the next area probably will be operating systems. Databases will take longer, if ever.

Cheers
Stu Received on Thu Jun 02 2005 - 05:32:10 CDT