Re: New Oracle DBA career outlook

> Anyone care to elaborate in these terms (immediate vs. intermediate
> term career prospects between the OraDBA and info security)?
In my observations of the supply and demand principles for IT staff I have found several categories, though they are rather arbitrary, we can always evaluate IT staff in terms of demand and supply . The demand is generated by the following categories as they relate to a hypothetical "head" in the pool of head count, from which several sources are available: contractor, consulting, H1-B, exempt (internal: {IT skill switchers, career changers}, external: {new grads, career changers, IT skill switchers, intra-regional churners, inter-regional churners, down shifters} )

My opinions on the prospects short-term and intermediate for Security and OraDBA:

Both of these can easily fall into any one of the categories (see below), but.....

The larger number of OraDBA's will be seen in: A, B, & D. You will also see Oracle in-place in larger organizations that can afford and need the performance of high-end servers usually running on a *NIX platform. It has an excellent track-record with high-volume databases and scalability for growing organizations. Where an organization is using Oracle but doesn't need an industrial-strength database they will easily opt for SQL Server 2000 once they run out of space on their high-end server--if they have one. So there is or will be a large market shifting toward the more cost-effective alternative. New organizations will opt for SQL Sever, Access, or MySQL to avoid any big hits. But if the application is seen as part of category A, they will still opt for SQL Server especially if they aren't going to purchase a UNIX high-end server. Oracle's real competitor in its entrenched markets is DB2.

The short-term for OraDBA's is probably negative as organizations that are sticking with Oracle are already loaded up on staff for categories A, B, & D, with the negative decline in B and D. For Intermediate term, I do not see any change. There will be some natural churn and retirement creating a small amount of demand in category A, but the salaries will probably wane until they reach an internal "cultural equilibrium" based on experience (i.e. = number of years with the product). This is an overall assessment of course, but in still expanding organizations and promising new, large-scale startup organizations, there will be a demand in categories A,B,C,D,E which will naturally overlap in the newly created positions. The competition amongst candidates for these positions will be high.

Security: The popular demand for this candidate is generated by two major attributes in the IT arena: 1) A large number of independent systems across LAN's, WAN's, Intranets and Internets. 2) A large amount of turnover in overall resources. To get a new logon account and the procedures can be daunting as the procedures have evolved and been in flux over the last ten years. This creates prime/ripe opportunities for would-be attackers and corporate spies since a good number of access points use the same passwords to handle the lack of system interconnectedness (i.e. no single sign-on). Combine this with marketing efforts and scare in light of recent attacks on the United States by foreign and domestic enemies, you have a new position and discipline developing in traditionally non-IT companies. Security positions have always been around mind you, but the number of vulnerabilities has increased drastically and the complexity has grown geometrically with the last five years of growth. For the short-term prospects are good in very large organizations IF you have the credentials and credibility that such a position necessitates. Keep in mind though, few orgs see it as a category A position. Most see it as a category D with a growing emphasis on category B. Of course, you want to be doing this in category E and as the intermediate prospects wane keep your sights open for retirement or category B. I believe veteran IT will have a better chance in the Security arena or special gear-heads that have developed a reputation can actually consult in this arena. Between inter-system connectivity, networking, VPN's, Password Maintenance, Firewalls, Viruses, Trojan Horses, spoofing, etc. there's a lot to know to be an expert here; so I bet very large orgs will create a whole department for security especially where security is seen to be of highest importance: financial and government institutions.

CATEGORIES
A. Mission Critical: the target position is essential to company functioning. The number of income-generating transactions is diminished without this staff member (SM). The proximity of this perception is very near and would not be disputed by the largest power-holding members of the organization. Systems in this category are slow to be replaced. They are maintained through upgrades or external system integration until the organization begins to plateau in expanding its markets followed by a focus on increased margin and/or profit through "squeezing" expenses and oftentimes assets. Examples: General ledger, Manufacturing, A/R, others include A/P, intangible assets management packages (licenses, investments, warranties, etc.).

B. Optimum Operation: the target position is essential to equalizing the workload, in effect to increase resource availability, reliability, and controllability. Examples include: workflow applications, email and messaging, support applications. This also includes the tactic of having overlapping redundancies in skill sets among staff. This is where having a third-person would be useful but not essential to optimum operation. The _saturation point_ of adding an additional head is usually seen when at least one staff member is not contributing any value (this condition is usually seen in large growth phases followed by plateau)

C. Projected/In-Place Expansion Activates: Expanded processes or new processes require the following add-on phases on top of a normal process which requires more resources: Setup, Test, and Refine. After the Refine phase, the Normal phase follows which is accompanied by a staff _saturation point_ (see B.). Often, Setup and Test phases are staffed by non-exempt resource pools. The Refine phase is a popular phase to hire from the new grads pool with the left-over budgeting inertia in the department. The new-grad usually leaves after the Refinement phase anyway, and that is a perfect time, as the Normal phase would require a change in headcount in the department.

D. Maintenance: the target position is required to meet the maintenance needs for on-going system operation. The activities include help-desk, backups, recoveries, upgrades, troubleshooting, etc. This category is often seen as mission-critical and there is some overlap, but this category is still separate, in that, when staffing in this category is ignored for a long enough time (varies with system homogeneity vs. heterogeneity), this category is elevated, merged, split as people see fit with category A. Ignoring this category is like holding your breath. One of the pressure points in this category is when staffing is increased in the other categories or when system failures are long in-between but occur simultaneously.

E. Profit Center: This is the golden place to be for talented and energetic producers as the organization can and willingly borrows capital to pay the producers. Usually a ROI calculation can be done on this SM, making it easy to justify costs seen as investments. Engineers are usually found here and here is where the QA, OO Design, Methodology, etc. are often found to be of great importance. The trend of ultra-casual business culture started here. As the worldwide budget for this center has moved overseas, the ultra-casual business culture can be seen to diminish.

F. Pet Projects: These are politically driven projects (not bad or good, the project is purely driven by political power and is impossible to tie to any value if it is there). Here is where great innovations can emerge as many history making managers know. Think of these as "research" activities; however, they often do not fall under the budget account, R&D Expense. Sometimes these are important for not losing budget power. The resource pool is usually popular, talented, has a large circle of influence and has a history of producing, and the organizational powers do not want to lose it to another market.
G. R&D: Different organizations' perceptions vary in this category which is often justified by a large inter-industry difference in profit margin. The higher the profit margin on the products the larger concomitant increases in R&D budget availability. Candidates usually have a high-profile track record or have a strong academic record usually with a Ph.D. and a positive research and publication record.

One thing that is very important to understand is that regional differences are very different. Too, your willingness to move and seek out potential employers anywhere (to include the entire world) will affect your chances of landing your target position.

That's my best B.S. on the topic. The important thing to remember is that, working in IT is stressful and you must continually acquire new skills. If you are a manger, you still want to be developing credentials. No one can predict the future accurately and will share it with anyone :) As more and more people are leaving IT because of lossed-jobs, stress, and dissatisfaction, experience will count even more than credentials. But, we may also see that IT is going to the youth and those willing to work for low-wages, making it a first-career springboard for future career switches. Who knows, there may even be another shift in future-brightness enough to establish a completely different fitness landscape for IT careers.

Eli Received on Sun Jun 30 2002 - 13:46:09 CDT