Re: Santa Claus is coming to..

From: Tim Gorman <tim.evdbt_at_gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Jan 2020 11:47:16 -0800
Message-ID: <c763321d-f9a9-5c48-d17c-93452461de2b_at_gmail.com>



Dreamforce has over 170,000 attendees, so no, the problem is not that OOW is getting too big.  It is the opposite.

The costs of a takeover of downtown SF are high, and back when OOW attracted 60,000 attendees, it was probably affordable, but it isn't any longer.

I last attended OOW18 (missed last year), and I guess-timated attendance at 25,000 or less, probably less.  There were all kinds of cute tricks like making the open space on Howard St smaller, so it wouldn't look empty.  Y'all can offer your own estimates, but if you are buying the figure of 60,000 used by Oracle since 2013, then I've a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Assuming the costs of a downtown takeover of SF (including the closure of Howard St) to be static from year to year, this means that one-third of the previous peak attendance of 60,000 is supporting those same costs.  OOW14 could afford it, but OOW20 evidently cannot.

I recall the expansion by OOW into surrounding hotels and the closure of Howard Street beginning around OOW11 or OOW12, so that must have been planned in 2009 or so.  It had to be a dramatic increase in event costs, but as the event was growing year by year at that time, it was worth doing.  Likewise, the venue planning for OOW20 probably started in 2016 or 2017, and at that point planners saw attendance as questionable, dropping below the threshold where SF was cost-effective.

Also, would anyone like to compare the cost differences between concerts on Treasure Island versus a concert in a massive Vegas ballroom?  That alone could tip the scales.

So, of course I don't have any special insight or solid facts, but if you have planned events it is not hard to understand.

OOW is moving to Vegas because it is acceptable to, and less expensive for, Oracle.  No event planner ever got fired for recommending Vegas or Orlando.  Vegas is optimized for enormous conventions (i.e. 100,000+), so OOW with 25,000 or so won't create any stress at all.  Moving the event away from SF also makes the whole thing a little less disruptive at Oracle HQ too.

Also, MGM basically owns most of the Vegas hotels, and MGM is aggressively making reciprocal deals with suppliers lately (i.e. we'll buy your product/service if you hold your events in Vegas, etc), so if Oracle closed a big deal with MGM a few years ago, then that likely impacted things too.

All the other offered reasons (i.e. homeless problems, street conditions, inconveniences, etc) have been present for every OOW since they started, so they aren't that credible;  Dreamforce isn't complaining, just as OOW didn't years ago.

On 1/8/2020 8:22 AM, Khan, Muhammad wrote:
>
> In non-technical assessment news, OOW is gonna be in Vegas this year.
> Who is happy? I’m user city of SF isnt J
>
>
> Is it getting too big for SF to handle?
>
> Image
>
>
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Received on Wed Jan 08 2020 - 20:47:16 CET

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