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Home -> Community -> Mailing Lists -> Oracle-L -> OT: Prognostications and Timing the Market... was "I'll just go and kill myself..."
Well I somehow managed to sell off all my stock at the end of '99 before the NAZ meltdown. Not necessarily because of investment savvy but because of virtuous paranoia. Maybe I missed some profits by getting out before the full expansion of the "Internet bubble" but neither have I lost any money after the bubble burst. Not losing money in the current market is an accomplishment so I pat myself on the back. Given that I believe I've out performed most the "experts" over the last year. ;-)
Since I spend my time closely monitoring databases and not the market I play conservative and keep the following in mind. The market is mostly emotional and rarely follows logic or economic reasoning. Since a mass psychoanalysis of all the investment community very difficult at best, I make the following observations about human nature: The emotions of panic and fear are much more urgent than those of greed. Therefore, the fall is faster than the recovery so I'll wait patiently for the panic to subside and observe a few months of up tick before getting back in. Missing the absolute bottoming out of the market by a mere two months is better than the alternative.
Steve Orr
-----Original Message-----
Flynn
Sent: Wednesday, April 04, 2001 6:40 AM
To: Multiple recipients of list ORACLE-L
Patrice,
DO YOU REALLY THINK I'D BE PLUGGING AWAY AT A Database if I could accurately predict the markets ...
I'd be on the beach, with a one young beauty to bring me cocktails on my left, and another on my right to rub in the suntan lotion (Don't tell my wife about this fantasy ...)
In my humble opinion (FWIW - and I haven't put any money behind it) I don't think we have seen the bottom yet. We have had a BULL economy for the last 15? years - the last major(?) fall was in 1986 - October if I remember, but there have only been a couple of scares since then (remember the Asian flu?), but nothing major.
I hope we are just starting a short period of consolidation, and then the
world markets will start expanding again, but my gut feel (and you should
see the size of my gut ...) is that this may be the start of a much longer
(3 - 5 years) recession ...
So now that I've cheered you up, I'll just go and jump out the window
(unfortunately I'm in the basement of the office block - the worst I'll
probably do is hurt my ego)
Sorry - I'm having a rough day ...
Regards
Oweson Flynn
-----Original Message-----
Patrice J
Sent: 04 April 2001 14:20
To: Multiple recipients of list ORACLE-L
Speaking of cost-cutting, anyone have any idea when Oracle will bottom out on the stock market?
I am wondering whether now would be a good time to invest...
I think we are getting close to that now, but I say that every day lately and the stock seems to be dropping further every few days.
Pat.
-- Please see the official ORACLE-L FAQ: http://www.orafaq.com -- Author: Steve Orr INET: sorr_at_arzoo.com Fat City Network Services -- (858) 538-5051 FAX: (858) 538-5051 San Diego, California -- Public Internet access / Mailing Lists -------------------------------------------------------------------- To REMOVE yourself from this mailing list, send an E-Mail message to: ListGuru_at_fatcity.com (note EXACT spelling of 'ListGuru') and in the message BODY, include a line containing: UNSUB ORACLE-LReceived on Wed Apr 04 2001 - 11:52:13 CDT
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