RE: But all is not gloom and doom for Oracle...

I agree, Tim.

Everything is relative to the context -- Oracle is well positioned right now, as are the other companies that produce tangible products.

There are thousands of people who "played" with Internet stock trading, many of them buying shares on margin. Now they were burned a little, they retreated in a panic hence the drop in market share for the NASDAQ firms.

In reality, Oracle is a solid company, and if they can continue selling their applications and maintain their server sales, their shares will probably go up.

In the media there are always stories breaking through about one company or another being vulnerable, or doing something wrong. It's a tough world out there, so there are many examples of companies that are operating just within the confines of the law, sometimes they step over the line a little. (I am thinking of Microsoft here). They all play this game, testing the limits trying to secure an advantage on the market.

Remember that SAP in the U.S. has had a few problems of its own, I don't know about the other applications vendors.

The IT shares will climb up again, it may take time but I believe that they will go up. Unless the IT infrastructure collapses (highly unlikely), IT firms will stabilize and the market will mature. Now many people have realized that some ideas don't work, and some dot coms have fallen. That's normal I think, when a market is making its transition from infancy to adolescence. <grin> -- I wouldn't say it's a mature market yet --

I would ask the same questions people ask when considering buying stocks on the NYSE -- what does this company do, really. Is it useful. Does it have a future. Is there a potential for growth. Will they get mangled by their competition. What do their ratios look like. Is management responsible and capable. Are they "street smart" enough to hold their own on the market. etc. etc.

Regards,

Patrice Boivin
Systems Analyst (Oracle DBA)
Bedford Institute of Oceanography
Fisheries and Oceans Canada

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Tim Sawmiller
> Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 3:45 PM
> To: Multiple recipients of list ORACLE-L
> Subject: But all is not gloom and doom for Oracle...
>
> But all is not gloom and doom for Oracle. Excerpts from Chuck Phillips of
> Morgan Stanley on the last quarter....
>
> It's useful to keep the quarter in perspective.
> It's a miss but not a financial disaster:
>
> - Oracle made $900 million in operating profits in the quarter. This is
> real business.
>
> - Revenue of $2.67 billion was 5% below our $2.75 billion estimate --
> not 25% below like some other pre-announcements.
>
> - The company booked $1.1 billion in license revenue instead of our $1.2
> billion estimate -- so most deals closed.
>
> - Applications were up 50% in the quarter. Database was flat to
> slightly down in the quarter versus a tough compare. Total licenses
> increased 6%.
>
> Oracle was one of the last generals left standing on a brittle
> technology battlefield, and in the end couldn't avoid the bullets and
> hand grenades that were showering down from above. It has become clear
> that in an environment like this one, there are no bulletproof vests.
> Other software companies have to be concerned and will likely see
> something in March. Oracle has a strong product line, is well
> established with customers references and couldn't get quite enough
> deals done. Most other software companies are in far weaker positions
> from a product and positioning perspective.
>
>
> >>> PierceED_at_csus.edu 03/21/01 01:52PM >>>
>
> ------- Forwarded message follows -------
> Date sent: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 02:04:08 -0500 (EST)
>
> ...
>
>
> ***************************************************
> $1 Billion Savings Gets Even Less Likely For Oracle
>
> Oracle's goal to reach one billion dollars in savings by implementing
> its own financial software just got even more unattainable. Oracle
> Thursday announced financial results for the third quarter, ending
> Feb. 28. As expected, the company failed to meet the margins and
> profits it will need to achieve its savings goals,
>
> The operating margin for the third quarter was 33 percent. That's up
> 2 percent year-over-year, which is good, but it falls far short of
> the 40 percent margin that the company and financial analysts have
> said would be needed to achieve the company's goal of saving 1
> billion in costs this year over last year.
>
> Combine the disappointing operating margin with flat, rather than
> growing, profits and what you end up with is a cost savings, year-
> over-year, significantly less than even the $300 million that it
> seemed was just barely within Oracle's reach two weeks ago. -- Mitch
> Wagner
>
> Read the entire story:
>
> http://update.internetweek.com/cgi-bin4/flo?y=eC2a0BdpN70V30LxJk
>
> ***************************************************
>
> ...
>
>
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>
> --
> Please see the official ORACLE-L FAQ: http://www.orafaq.com
> --
> Author: Eric D. Pierce
> INET: PierceED_at_csus.edu
>
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-- 
Please see the official ORACLE-L FAQ: http://www.orafaq.com
-- 
Author: Boivin, Patrice J
  INET: BoivinP_at_mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca

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