In one of my favorite posts, namely When I am a VC Overlord, I wrote:
I will not fund any entrepreneur who mentions “market projections” in other than ironic terms. Nobody who talks of market projections with a straight face should be trusted.
Even so, I got talked today into putting on the record a prediction that machine-generated data will grow at more than 40% for a while.
My reasons for this opinion are little more than:
- Moore’s Law suggests that the same expenditure will buy 40% or so more machine-generated data each year.
- Budgets spent on producing machine-generated data seem to be going up.
I was referring to the creation of such data, but the growth rates of new creation and of persistent storage are likely, at least at this back-of-the-envelope level, to be similar.
Anecdotal evidence actually suggests 50-60%+ growth rates, so >40% seemed like a responsible claim.
- My recent survey of machine-generated data topics started with a list of many different kinds of the stuff.
- My 2009 post on data warehouse volume growth makes similar points, and notes that high growth rates mean we likely can never afford to keep all machine-generated data permanently.
- My 2011 claim that traditional databases will migrate into RAM is sort of this argument’s flipside.